46 research outputs found
The relationship between the ITCZ and the Southern Hemispheric eddy-driven jet
[1] We study the effect of a thermal forcing confined to the midlatitudes of one hemisphere on the eddyâdriven jet in the opposite hemisphere. We demonstrate the existence of an âinterhemispheric teleconnection,â whereby warming (cooling) the Northern Hemisphere causes both the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the Southern Hemispheric midlatitude jet to shift northward (southward). The interhemispheric teleconnection is effected by a change in the asymmetry of the Hadley cells: as the ITCZ shifts away from the Equator, the crossâequatorial Hadley cell intensifies, fluxing more momentum toward the subtropics and sustaining a stronger subtropical jet. Changes in subtropical jet strength, in turn, alter the propagation of extratropical waves into the tropics, affecting eddy momentum fluxes and the eddyâdriven westerlies. The relevance of this mechanism is demonstrated in the context of future climate change simulations, where shifts of the ITCZ are significantly related to shifts of the Southern Hemispheric eddyâdriven jet in austral winter. The possible relevance of the proposed mechanism to paleoclimates is discussed, particularly with regard to theories of ice age terminations
Recent Advances Concerning Certain Class of Geophysical Flows
This paper is devoted to reviewing several recent developments concerning
certain class of geophysical models, including the primitive equations (PEs) of
atmospheric and oceanic dynamics and a tropical atmosphere model. The PEs for
large-scale oceanic and atmospheric dynamics are derived from the Navier-Stokes
equations coupled to the heat convection by adopting the Boussinesq and
hydrostatic approximations, while the tropical atmosphere model considered here
is a nonlinear interaction system between the barotropic mode and the first
baroclinic mode of the tropical atmosphere with moisture.
We are mainly concerned with the global well-posedness of strong solutions to
these systems, with full or partial viscosity, as well as certain singular
perturbation small parameter limits related to these systems, including the
small aspect ratio limit from the Navier-Stokes equations to the PEs, and a
small relaxation-parameter in the tropical atmosphere model. These limits
provide a rigorous justification to the hydrostatic balance in the PEs, and to
the relaxation limit of the tropical atmosphere model, respectively. Some
conditional uniqueness of weak solutions, and the global well-posedness of weak
solutions with certain class of discontinuous initial data, to the PEs are also
presented.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1507.0523
Increased insolation threshold for runaway greenhouse processes on Earth like planets
Because the solar luminosity increases over geological timescales, Earth
climate is expected to warm, increasing water evaporation which, in turn,
enhances the atmospheric greenhouse effect. Above a certain critical
insolation, this destabilizing greenhouse feedback can "runaway" until all the
oceans are evaporated. Through increases in stratospheric humidity, warming may
also cause oceans to escape to space before the runaway greenhouse occurs. The
critical insolation thresholds for these processes, however, remain uncertain
because they have so far been evaluated with unidimensional models that cannot
account for the dynamical and cloud feedback effects that are key stabilizing
features of Earth's climate. Here we use a 3D global climate model to show that
the threshold for the runaway greenhouse is about 375 W/m, significantly
higher than previously thought. Our model is specifically developed to quantify
the climate response of Earth-like planets to increased insolation in hot and
extremely moist atmospheres. In contrast with previous studies, we find that
clouds have a destabilizing feedback on the long term warming. However,
subsident, unsaturated regions created by the Hadley circulation have a
stabilizing effect that is strong enough to defer the runaway greenhouse limit
to higher insolation than inferred from 1D models. Furthermore, because of
wavelength-dependent radiative effects, the stratosphere remains cold and dry
enough to hamper atmospheric water escape, even at large fluxes. This has
strong implications for Venus early water history and extends the size of the
habitable zone around other stars.Comment: Published in Nature. Online publication date: December 12, 2013.
Accepted version before journal editing and with Supplementary Informatio
Observational constraints on atmospheric and oceanic cross-equatorial heat transports: revisiting the precipitation asymmetry problem in climate models
Satellite based top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiation budget observations are combined with mass corrected vertically integrated atmospheric energy divergence and tendency from reanalysis to infer the regional distribution of the TOA, atmospheric and surface energy budget terms over the globe. Hemispheric contrasts in the energy budget terms are used to determine the radiative and combined sensible and latent heat contributions to the cross-equatorial heat transports in the atmosphere (AHT_EQ) and ocean (OHT_EQ). The contrast in net atmospheric radiation implies an AHT_EQ from the northern hemisphere (NH) to the southern hemisphere (SH) (0.75 PW), while the hemispheric difference in sensible and latent heat implies an AHT_EQ in the opposite direction (0.51 PW), resulting in a net NH to SH AHT_EQ (0.24 PW). At the surface, the hemispheric contrast in the radiative component (0.95 PW) dominates, implying a 0.44 PW SH to NH OHT_EQ. Coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) models with excessive net downward surface radiation and surface-to-atmosphere sensible and latent heat transport in the SH relative to the NH exhibit anomalous northward AHT_EQ and overestimate SH tropical precipitation. The hemispheric bias in net surface radiative flux is due to too much longwave surface radiative cooling in the NH tropics in both clear and all-sky conditions and excessive shortwave surface radiation in the SH subtropics and extratropics due to an underestimation in reflection by clouds
The roles of static stability and tropical â extratropical interactions in the summer interannual variability of the North Atlantic sector
Summer seasonal forecast skill in the North Atlantic sector is lower than winter skill. To identify potential controls on predictability, the sensitivity of North Atlantic baroclinicity to atmospheric drivers is quantified. Using ERA-INTERIM reanalysis data, North Atlantic storm-track baroclinicity is shown to be less sensitive to meridional temperature-gradient variability in summer. Static stability shapes the sectorâs interannual variability by modulating the sensitivity of baroclinicity to variations in meridional temperature gradients and tropopause height and by modifying the baroclinicity itself. High static stability anomalies at upper levels result in more zonal extratropical cyclone tracks and higher eddy kinetic energy over the British Isles in the summertime. These static stability anomalies are not strongly related to the summer NAO; but they are correlated with the suppression of convection over the tropical Atlantic and with a poleward-shifted subtropical jet. These results suggest a non-local driver of North Atlantic variability. Furthermore, they imply that improved representations of convection over the south-eastern part of North America and the tropical Atlantic might improve summer seasonal forecast skill
Monsoons: global energetics and local physics as drivers of past, present and future monsoons
Global constraints on momentum and energy govern the structure of the zonal mean tropical circulation and rainfall. The continental-scale monsoon systems are also facets of a momentum- and energy-constrained global circulation, but their modern and paleo variability deviates substantially from that of the longitudinal mean through mechanisms neither fully understood nor well simulated. A framework grounded in global constraints yet encompassing the complexities of monsoon dynamics is needed to identify the causes of mismatch between theory, models, and observations and, ultimately, improve regional climate projection. In a first step towards this goal, disparate regional processes must be distilled into gross measures of energy flow in and out of continents and from the surface to the tropopause, so that monsoon dynamics may be coherently diagnosed across modern and paleo observations and across idealized and comprehensive simulations. Accounting for zonal asymmetries in the circulation, land/ocean differences in surface fluxes, and the character of convective systems, such a monsoon framework would integrate our understanding at all relevant scales: from the fine details of how moisture and energy are lifted in the updrafts of thunderclouds, up to the global circulations
Synergistic ecoclimate teleconnections from forest loss in different regions structure global ecological responses
ABSTRACT: Forest loss in hotspots around the world impacts not only local climate where loss occurs, but also influences climate and vegetation in remote parts of the globe through ecoclimate teleconnections. The magnitude and mechanism of remote impacts likely depends on the location and distribution of forest loss hotspots, but the nature of these dependencies has not been investigated. We use global climate model simulations to estimate the distribution of ecologically-relevant climate changes resulting from forest loss in two hotspot regions: western North America (wNA), which is experiencing accelerated dieoff, and the Amazon basin, which is subject to high rates of deforestation. The remote climatic and ecological net effects of simultaneous forest loss in both regions differed from the combined effects of loss from the two regions simulated separately, as evident in three impacted areas. Eastern South American Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) increased due to changes in seasonal rainfall associated with Amazon forest loss and changes in temperature related to wNA forest loss. Eurasiaâs GPP declined with wNA forest loss due to cooling temperatures increasing soil ice volume. Southeastern North American productivity increased with simultaneous forest loss, but declined with only wNA forest loss due to changes in VPD. Our results illustrate the need for a new generation of local-to-global scale analyses to identify potential ecoclimate teleconnections, their underlying mechanisms, and most importantly, their synergistic interactions, to predict the responses to increasing forest loss under future land use change and climate change
Analysis of rainfall seasonality from observations and climate models
Two new indicators of rainfall seasonality based on information entropy, the relative entropy (RE) and the dimensionless seasonality index (DSI), together with the mean annual rainfall, are evaluated on a global scale for recently updated precipitation gridded datasets and for historical simulations from coupled atmosphere--ocean general circulation models. The RE provides a measure of the number of wet months and, for precipitation regimes featuring a distinct wet and dry season, it isĂ directly related to the duration of the wet season. The DSI combines the rainfall intensity with its degree of seasonality and it is an indicator of the extent of the global monsoon region. We show that the RE and the DSI are fairly independent of the time resolution of the precipitation data, thereby allowing objective metrics for model intercomparison and ranking. Regions with different precipitation regimes are classified and characterized in terms of RE and DSI. Comparison of different land observational datasets reveals substantial difference in their local representation of seasonality. It is shown that two-dimensional maps of RE provide an easy way to compare rainfall seasonality from various datasets and to determine areas of interest. Models participating to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project platform, Phase 5, consistently overestimate the RE over tropical Latin America and underestimate it in West Africa, western Mexico and East Asia. It is demonstrated that positive RE biases in a general circulation model are associated with excessively peaked monthly precipitation fractions, too large during the wet months and too small in the months preceding and following the wet season; negative biases are instead due, in most cases, to an excess of rainfall during the premonsoonal months
Absence of a thick atmosphere on the terrestrial exoplanet LHSÂ 3844b
Most known terrestrial planets orbit small stars with radii less than 60 per cent of that of the Sun. Theoretical models predict that these planets are more vulnerable to atmospheric loss than their counterparts orbiting Sun-like stars. To determine whether a thick atmosphere has survived on a small planet, one approach is to search for signatures of atmospheric heat redistribution in its thermal phase curve. Previous phase curve observations of the super-Earth 55 Cancri e (1.9 Earth radii) showed that its peak brightness is offset from the substellar point (latitude and longitude of 0 degrees)âpossibly indicative of atmospheric circulation. Here we report a phase curve measurement for the smaller, cooler exoplanet LHS 3844b, a 1.3-Earth-radii world in an 11-hour orbit around the small nearby star LHS 3844. The observed phase variation is symmetric and has a large amplitude, implying a dayside brightness temperature of 1,040 ± 40 kelvin and a nightside temperature consistent with zero kelvin (at one standard deviation). Thick atmospheres with surface pressures above 10 bar are ruled out by the data (at three standard deviations), and less-massive atmospheres are susceptible to erosion by stellar wind. The data are well fitted by a bare-rock model with a low Bond albedo (lower than 0.2 at two standard deviations). These results support theoretical predictions that hot terrestrial planets orbiting small stars may not retain substantial atmospheres